How does an empire disappear overnight? Eric H. Cline's 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed investigates the collapse of multiple empires at the end of the Late Bronze Age. Through much of the book, Cline describes a booming international system in the Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean, and Near East during the Bronze Age, but we then learn that at the start of the Late Bronze Age, the great powers of these regions collapsed. After exploring earthquakes, drought, famine, rebellion, invasion, decentralization, Sea People, and systems collapse as possible causes, Cline suggests that the multiplier effect and complexity theory can provide a more nuanced explanation: a perfect storm of calamities snowballed into a massive force of destruction that caused the demise of many civilizations of the Late Bronze Age.
Cline first provides an overview of life for major states in the Late Bronze Age. The Hittites, Egyptians, Mitannians, Kassites, Assyrians, Cypriots, Canaanites, Minoans, and Mycenaeans all established empires, kingdoms, palaces, and cities that were primarily ruled as monarchies. The Akkadian language was used in international relations to unite these peoples in trade and diplomacy. Marriages between ruling families across empires became a diplomatic tool as did large armadas of gifts and even embassies that were established in foreign lands. Treaties were used to resolve many conflicts, but during war, we see the first use of embargos against threatening nations. International trading was the economic backbone to this system which encouraged specializations in different tradable goods. Although the civilizations of the Late Bronze Age had a fully functioning international network of trade and diplomacy, around 1177 BC this entire web of power collapsed, cities were abandoned or destroyed, and empires lost everything.
To begin his investigation into this collapse, Cline provides a summary of what other scholars have suggested as possible reasons and then rejects these claims as stand-alone explanations. For example some posit that earthquakes were the reason for the destruction of so many cities in the region. Archaeoseismologist research shows that between 1225 BC and 1175 BC there were a series of earthquakes around much of the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. Cline agrees that earthquakes caused severe damage, but because there's evidence that various cities affected by earthquakes were able to rebuild and resettle before the final undoing of society in the Late Bronze Age, he rejects earthquakes as the driving cause of collapse.
Another possible explanation offered by many scholars is widespread drought and famine. One of the most famous pieces of supporting evidence for this theory is that there was a dramatic drop in population around the end of the Late Bronze Age. Additionally, there is archeological evidence that shows there was a drought in the Mediterranean region around this time and written texts that speak of famine. However, Cline counters that “subsequent archaeological surveys and excavations have shown that the population decrease was not nearly as dramatic” as previously thought (143). He rejects this as the primary explanation for the collapse of the Late Bronze Age because “we must also acknowledge that droughts have been frequent in this region throughout history, and that they have not always caused civilizations to collapse.” (147).
Internal rebellion fueled by draught, earthquake, or famine is another possible explanation for the collapse of civilization in the Late Bronze Age. There's no specific evidence to suggest that a revolution from within society itself is to blame for the collapse of cities and states, and thus it is an unproven hypothesis, regardless of plausibility. Furthermore, Cline points to the fact that “many civilizations have successfully survived internal rebellions, often even flourishing under a new regime” which makes it less likely that rebellion alone is the main explanation for the collapse (148).
Other scholars suggest that invasion of trade routes collapsed the economies of the wealthiest city-states. There is evidence to indicate invasions did happen, and places like Ugarit were invaded, destroyed, and never resettled. However, Cline references the large scribe archives of Rapanu and Urtenu that show “the tremendous amount of international interconnection that apparently still existed in the Eastern Mediterranean even at the end of the Late Bronze Age”, so these invasions were not impactful enough to fully undermine the web of civilizations that existed up to that time (152).
The Sea People that raided from the North down to the South are popularly cited as the reason for the destruction of the Late Bronze Age. Inscriptions found in Egypt provide the best account of this unknown army that came by land and by sea. Some scholars believe the attacks represented a “sociopolitical and economic change… from a predominantly palatial-controlled economy to one in which private merchants and smaller entities had considerably more economic freedom.” (153). Cline claims that the economic decentralization and rise of private merchants are something that perhaps “simply emerged out of the chaos of the collapse” rather than being a cause of it (154). He submits that the evidence shows the Sea People to be a “somewhat more peaceful picture of a mixed group of migrants in search of a new start in a new land”, so “they are unlikely, all by themselves, to have ended civilization in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.” (160).
After rejecting these individual explanations for the collective demise of Late Bronze Age civilizations, Cline argues that the most likely hypothesis is offered by Colin Renfrew who suggests that “the failure of a minor element started a chain reaction that reverberated on a greater and greater scale, until finally the whole structure was brought to collapse.” (161). Renfrew describes systems collapse as having four main features: “(1) the collapse of the central administrative organization; (2) the disappearance of the traditional elite class; (3) a collapse of the centralized economy; and (4) a settlement shift and population decline.” (161). Cline explains that “as we have seen, soon after 1200 BC, the Bronze Age civilizations collapsed in the Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean, and Near East, exhibiting all of the classic features outlined by Renfrew.” (162). However, rather than claiming that systems collapse theory tells the full story, Cline suggests that all the previous hypotheses combined offer the richest explanation. In Cline's words, “they could have combined to produce a scenario in which the repercussions of each factor were magnified, in what some scholars have called a “multiplier effect.”.” (162).
In Cline's view, the end of Bronze Age civilizations came “as the consequence of a complex series of events that reverberated throughout the interconnected kingdoms and empires of the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean and eventually led to a collapse of the entire system.” (174). Beyond the multiplier effect, Cline investigates the usage of complexity theory as an explanation. Complexity theory strives to explain “the phenomena which emerge from a collection of interacting objects.” (166). As a system becomes more complex, the stability of the system becomes more difficult to maintain. When the pieces of the system grow more dependent on each other, instability in any one piece can cause large instability to the whole. The more complex a system is, the more likely it is to collapse. Cline goes on to explain “the consequence of such instability is that when the complex system does collapse, it “decomposes into smaller entities,” which is exactly what we see in the Iron Age that follows the end of these Bronze Age civilizations.” (169). In the end, Cline views the collapse of civilization in the Late Bronze Age as “not a single driving force or trigger, but rather a number of different stressors, each of which forced the people to react in different ways to accommodate the changing situation(s).” (170).
Cline takes the stance that one stressor after another eventually brought down the powerful empires of the Late Bronze Age, and lays blame on no single event. Earthquakes, drought, famine, rebellion, invasion, decentralization, Sea People, and systems collapse, all played a vital role in destruction of these interconnected peoples.